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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Pattaya Rag Facebook girls of the week - 29th May

Summer Uniform: Greek goddess

My sweets, do you have a favorite summer outfit? I'm excited to announce a new series on Cup of Jo, where I'll feature photos of stylish friends and show how to put together the look (mostly because I want to copy them myself!).

First up: My friend Kendra Smoot always looks gorgeous, but I especially love this ensemble (above) she wore on vacation in Greece. Relaxed, easy and beautiful, don't you think?

Here's how to get the look:
Polka-dot scarf: The Hill-Side, $50.
Round sunglasses: Halogen, $68.
Gray tee: LNA, $48.
Boyfriend shorts: Victoria's Secret, $44.50.
Gladiator sandals: Juicy Couture, $151, or Steve Madden, $42.
Pink nail polish: Essie, $8.

Do you have a summer uniform? xo

(Photo by Akira Ruiz)

Vaccines Cause Autism, Until You Look At The Data

According to a much-discussed new paper, vaccines may cause autism after all: A Positive Association found between Autism Prevalence and Childhood Vaccination uptake across the U.S. Population.

The author is Gayle DeLong, who "teaches international finance at Baruch College, City University of New York", according to her profile as a board member of anti-vaccine group SafeMinds. She correlated rates of coverage of the government recommended full set of vaccines in the 51 US states including Washington D.C., with registered rates of autism in those states six years later.

Uh-oh - there was a correlation between vaccination in two year kids, and the rate of autism in the state six years later, when those kids were eight. As the abstract says:
The higher the proportion of children receiving recommended vaccinations, the higher was the prevalence of AUT... The results suggest that although mercury has been removed from many vaccines, other culprits may link vaccines to autism. Further study into the relationship between vaccines and autism is warranted.
Sounds rather scary. Until you look at the data, helpfully provided in the paper. First up, here's the scatterplot of all of the vaccination rates and all of the autism-six-years-later rates:

There's more than 51 data points as you can see: there's actually 355 because each state had seven different datapoints (1995 vaccines vs 2001 autism though to 2001 vs 2007). This scatterplot shows no correlation. You can tell just from looking at it, but the correlation coefficient confirms this, as it's a tiny r 0.012 (from a possible range of 0 to 1).

To be fair, that's a very noisy measure, because each state has unique characteristics, so the effect of vaccines will be diluted. However, it's still a useful sanity check, and shows that there can't be a major effect, otherwise it would be too big to get diluted.

To get around this I next looked at the change in the rates of vaccination from one year to the next, and correlated that with the corresponding change in future rates of autism, within each state. A "change" of 1 means no change, 0.5 means it halved and 2 means it doubled, etc.

Zilch. Correlation coeffiencent r is 0.034.

Maybe the changes year-to-year were too small? So I checked the changes between the last year, and the first year.

This made the changes bigger, because more tends to change over six years than in just one. And, to be fair, this does produces a slightly stronger vaccine-autism effect... but it's still tiny. The correlation coefficient here, r, is 0.18 which means that vaccination changes accounts for 3% of the variability in autism changes (r^2 = 0.034.) The p value is 0.20, statistically insignificant.

My conclusion is that this dataset shows no evidence of any association. The author nonetheless found one. How? By doing some statistical wizardry.
The statistical model used took into consideration the unique characteristics of each state. For example, each state had a unique mixture of pollution, which may have affected the prevalence of autism, yet such an effect was not included in this study. A fixed-effects, within-group panel regression (Hall and Cummins 2005) controlled for these unique yet undefined characteristics by deriving a different starting point (intercept) for each state.

The 51 different intercepts - one for each state - reflected the base level of autism or speech disorders occurring in that state that were not explained by the other independent variables (vaccination rates, income, or ethnicity). The model then produced a single relationship between the independent variables and the prevalence of autism or speech disorders.
OK, that's all very fancy, but when the raw data shows zilch and you can only find a signal by "controlling for" stuff, alarm bells start ringing. Given sufficient statistical analysis you can make any data say anything you want.

If the author had given details of the methods, and explained why she chose to control for the variables she did, and not others, that might be different. But she didn't. Nor did she justify only looking at the effects six years later, when five or seven or ten would be just as sensible... and so on.

(Note: whenever I've said "autism", that's my shorthand for autism + SLI, which is what the paper looked at; autism alone data are not presented. Note also that by "vaccination %" I mean "% who got the full vaccine schedule"; the other kids may have got vaccines, just not all of them.)

ResearchBlogging.orgDelong G (2011). A Positive Association found between Autism Prevalence and Childhood Vaccination uptake across the U.S. Population. Journal of toxicology and environmental health. Part A, 74 (14), 903-16 PMID: 21623535

Des Radsports letzter Kaiser ?

Erscheint im Covadonga Verlag

Nachtrag : Autor Klaus Blume im Interview

(Doch, es ist alles schon zigfach gesagt worden
von dem der Autor meint es sei nicht der Fall)

Eins muss aber doch noch gesagt werden...
Der Ordnung halber hätte der Autor
der Anmoderation sofort wiedersprechen müssen,
denn er ist alles andere als ein Radsportexperte.

Natalie for Grazia.it

Miss Natalie Hughes for Grazia.it.
Probably if you have been following my blog for a little while now, you would have guessed that Natalie would be one of the girls I wanted to photograph for Grazia.it. Natalie is the Fashion and Social Media Writer for Net-a-Porter.com, and also the editor of the lovely blog Canned Fashion . You can find the interview with Natalie in Grazia here (find out what her job at Net-a-Porter entails, her style influences and her idea of a perfect Saturday).
What I love about Natalie (apart from her amazing hair!), is that she loves wearing colour. Even in the depths of winter in London or Paris, I have photos of Natalie from the fashion weeks wearing little flashes of colour: a pair of hot pink trousers with a camel coat, an orange Hermes twilly tied around the waist of her jeans or in her pony tail, a kelly green coat teamed with paper-bag-waisted cargo pants, a purple and pink fitted cardigan with a paisley skirt. When we were in Paris in March, Natalie mentioned she was coveting a pair of the Isabel Marant coloured jeans. And it is no surprise that her most recent purchase was the Jil Sander bright orange PVC market bag!
So for our little feature, I was happy that Natalie pulled out some pretty, spring pieces for us to shoot. Her shirt is Equipment from Net-a Porter, the floral skirt is vintage and her Christian Louboutin shoes are from Net-a-Porter. Her reversible leather tote (note the green on one side and brown on the other) is from Net a Porter.
Her pants (below) are Etoile Isabel Marant from Net-a-Porter and her pretty, palest lilac knitted top is Proenza Schouler from Net-a-Porter.
Love Natalie's Hermes cuff, and gold Michael Kors watch from Net-a-Porter. Oh and her gorgeous phone which says Chic on the front! So cute.
Even Natalie's London flat has little pops of colour everywhere: Hermes boxes stacked on a window sill, vintage Vogue covers line the hallway wall, boxes of sparkly jewellery are nestled next to perfume bottles in her bedroom, heavy gold frames house photos of her family in the living room and fun invitations from fashion weeks are propped against books (note the Mulberry invitation in the collage below leaning against the clock). Natalie's pink trousers are vintage Versace, her white t-shirt is Splendid from Net-a-Porter, her black patent heels are Jimmy Choo from Net-a-Porter and her bag is the Jil Sander market shopper from Net-a-Porter (I love the green and white Jil Sander shopper especially with the pink shoulder strap).
Natalie is also a talented illustrator and straight way I recognised the girl in the illustration by Natalie in the bottom left of the collage....it is Bip Ling!
Natalie's dress is vintage (she customised it by chopping off the hem!)....so perfect for a Sunday morning spent lazing around her apartment. Or entertaining a photographer who has come to peek around her apartment ;)
Natalie made the hot pink pom-pom necklace in these photos herself! Her skirt is vintage (I know Natalie loves shopping for vintage in NYC when she goes for fashion week), and her white printed t-shirt is Proenza Schouler from Net-a-Porter.
Her hot pink bag is Miu Miu from Net-a-Porter and her shoes are Alexander Wang Freja platform boots from Net-a-Porter.

New York Fashion Week AW 2011


Hotels In China

Hotels In China
Hotels In China

Summer love.

The weather in New York is hot and sunny, and it finally feels like summer. Where do you live, and what's the weather like? Have you pulled out your shorts and sunscreen yet? xo

(Photo credits unknown, via Erin Dermody)

New York Fashion Week AW 2011...After Tracy Reese

Paris Fashion Week AW 2011...Ekaterina

Ekaterina Mukhina, Fashion Director, Vogue Russia.

To Me, Surfers Look Like,

To me, surfers look like,
To me, surfers look like,

Review: Practical tips for Wagaya, Sydney

If you live in, have been to, or plan on visiting Sydney, chances are you've heard of Wagaya. To say that this Japanese institution has been written up, blogged on and talked about is something of an understatement. So why bother writing about it again? It's still worth sharing the epic joy I derive from sharing a meal here with friends, but instead of just nattering on about the food (because it

GRACE ONE

Monday, May 30, 2011

robinson cano top players photo images

robinson cano top players photo
robinson cano top players photo
robinson cano top players photo
robinson cano top player
robinson cano top player
robinson cano images
robinson cano image
robinson cano image
robinson cano
robinson cano top player

robinson cano top players photo images

robinson cano top players photo
robinson cano top players photo
robinson cano top players photo
robinson cano top player
robinson cano top player
robinson cano images
robinson cano image
robinson cano image
robinson cano
robinson cano top player

The Most Questions I Get Asked About Is The Hotels In China.

The most questions I get asked about is the hotels in China.
The most questions I get asked about is the hotels in China.

Review: Saké Restaurant & Bar, Sydney

After having swayed-and-stumbled through The Rocks after one-too-many at The Argyle, it seemed only fitting that I finally make my way into Saké Restaurant & Bar to sample some of Shaun Presland's much-feted Japanese fare.A gently-illuminated banner sways in the breeze as I tromp over the worn flagstones and up to Saké's humble entrance. Design company Luchetti Krelle has brought a modern, almost

Hawaii, Central America 3

Hawaii, Central America 3
Hawaii, Central America 3